The Future of the Telecommunications Industry
Forecasting and Demand Analysis

Describes research in the area of empirical telecommunications demand analysis and forecasting in the light of tremendous market and regulatory changes. This book intends to educate readers about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to assess telecommunications products and how analytic techniques can better address existing products.

The aim of this book, Future of the Telecommunications Industry: Forecasting and Demand Analysis, is to describe leading research in the area of empirical telecommunications demand analysis and forecasting in the light of tremendous market and regulatory changes. Its purpose is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to assess new telecommunications products and how new analytic techniques can better address existing products. The research presented focuses on new products such as Internet access and additional lines and new techniques such as hazard modeling, adaptive forecasting and neural networks. The scope of this volume includes new telecommunications products, new analytical techniques, and a review of market changes in the US and other countries. Some of the most critical questions facing the industry are addressed here, such as the impact of competition, customer churn, rate re-balancing, and early assessment of new products. The research includes a variety of different countries, products and analytic tools.

List of Contributors. Acknowledgements. 1.
Introduction
D.G. Loomis. Part I: Demand for New
Products and Trends in Demand Analysis. 2.
Telecommunications Demand Analysis in Transition: An Overview of Part
I
L.D. Taylor. 3. An Econometric Study of the Demand for
Access to the Internet
D.J. Kridel, et al. 4.
Demand for and Use of Additional Lines by Residential Customers

C.A. Cassel. 5. The Changing Market for Inland and
International Calls
D. Cracknell. 6. Demand Modeling at
Bell Canada: A Retrospective
C. Dineen, M. Abrar.
7. Effects of Large Price Reductions on Toll and Carrier Access
Demand in California
T.J. Tardiff. 8. Semi-Parametric
Estimates of Intra-Lata Demand Elasticities
A. Levy.
Part II: Forecasting New Products and the Impact of
Competition: An Overview of Part II
D.G. Loomis.
10. Forecasting New Telecommunication Services at a
'Pre-Development' Product Stage
A. Taschner. 11. Analysis
of Customer Expectations for the Introduction of New
Telecommunications Services
I.M. Palombini, B. Sapio. 12.
Limits to Growth in Telecom Markets? J.-P. Saether. 13.
Forecasting Telephony Demand Against a Background of Major Structural
Change
D. Cracknell, C. Mason. 14. 161 Days of Full
Competition - Some Observations from the German Market

E.-O. Ruhle. 15. Competition in the Chinese Cellular
Market: Promise and Problematic
X. Yan, D.C. Pitt. Index.