The Analysis of Sports Forecasting

Given the magnitude of currency speculation and sports gambling, it is surprising that the literature contains mostly negative forecasting results. Majority opinion still holds that short term fluctuations in financial markets follow random walk. In this non-random walk through financial and sports gambling markets, parallels are drawn between modeling short term currency movements and modeling outcomes of athletic encounters. The forecasting concepts and methodologies are identical; only the variables change names. If, in fact, these markets are driven by mechanisms of non-random walk, there must be some explanation for the negative forecasting results. The Analysis of Sports Forecasting: Modeling Parallels Between Sports Gambling and Financial Markets examines this issue.

Preface. Introduction: A Variety of Betting Lines. Part I:
Models, Moralities, and Misconceptions. 1. A New
Information Age. 2. Data Generators. 3. Gambling,
Speculation, and Investment. 4. Commentaries. Part II:
Modeling Concepts. 1. Expectations: Gambling, Rational and
Statistical. 2. Shocks: Deviations from Expectations. 3.
Modeling Approaches. Part III: Football. 1. Modeling
National Football League Games. Part IV: Basketball. 1.
Modeling National Basketball Association Games. Part V:
Baseball. 1. Evolution of a Ball and Stick Experiment.
2. Modeling Major League Baseball Games. Part VI: Selection
of Athletes. 1. The Belarussian Connection. Part VII:
Financial Markets. 1. On the Predictability of Short Term
Currency Fluctuations. 2. Modeling Short Term Fluctuations of
Common Stock Issues. Appendix. A.1. Time Series Analysis:
Overview of Arma, Bilinear, and Higher Order Models. A.2.
Multiple Time Series Equations. A.3. Quantification of
Structural Effects in Regression Systems. Index. List of Figures.