The level and stability of China's grain supply and demand have important effects on both the Chinese national economy and the world grain market. This text offers a theoretical and empirical economic analysis of the grain economy, with projections to the years 2000, 2005 and 2010.

The level and stability of China's grain supply and demand have important effects on both the Chinese national economy and the world grain market. There is increasing interest in whether and how the country can continue to feed itself into the next millennium. In turn this raises concerns about global food security. This work is an attempt to bring a detailed but accessible theoretical and empirical economic analysis to China's grain supply and demand. Following the construction of rigorous models which take account of the special features of the Chinese grain economy, especially the effects of government policies, it makes projections of grain supply, demand and trade to the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. Policy changes up to the mid 1990s are incorporated into the modelling work and projections.

Government policy and agricultural development
grain supply and demand in China - a theoretical framework
grain supply response analysis
domestic grain demand analysis
projections and trade implications
conclusions - legacy, triumph and challenge. Appendices: mathematical derivation
data sources.