Presents leading political scientists' forecasts of the 1996 US presidential election, and methodological analysis.

Over the last 50 years, the role of polling has taken on increasing prominence in the American electoral process. This book brings together some of the leading figures in political science to present their election forecasts, discuss their methodology and present their critiques of the forecasting enterprise. They consider whether ever more accurate models of predicting voting behaviour damage the political climate by making politicians increasingly enslaved by pollsters, and the effect on turnout when there is a broad consensus as to who the winner will be.

PART ONE: INTRODUCTION

Forecasting US National Elections - James E Campbell and James C Garand PART TWO: FORECASTS OF THE 1996 AMERICAN NATIONAL ELECTIONS Polls and Votes - James E Campbell

The Trial-Heat Presidential Election Forecasting Model, Certainty, and Political Campaigns Bill and Al's Excellent Adventure - Alan Abramowitz

Forecasting the 1996 Presidential Election Of Time and Candidates - Helmut Norpoth

A Forecast for 1996 The Future in Forecasting - Michael Lewis-Beck and Charles Tien

Prospective Presidential Models Temporal Horizons and Presidential Election Forecasts - Christopher Wlezien and Robert S Erikson Reading the Political Tea Leaves - Thomas Holbrook

A Forecasting Model of Contemporary Presidential Elections Election Forecasting - Brad Lockerbie

A Look to the Future Poll-Based Forecasts and the House Vote in Presidential Election Years - Robert S Erikson and Lee Sigelman

1952-1992 and 1996 PART THREE: PERSPECTIVES ON ELECTION FORECASTING Evaluating Forecasts and Forecasting Models of the 1996 Presidential Election - Nathaniel Beck The Science of Forecasting Presidential Elections - James E Campbell